Monero initially tried to rally on Monday but found plenty of sellers near the $175 level to turn things around and show signs of exhaustion. The candlestick for the session looks like an inverted hammer, and it is worth noting that it was sitting just below the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA sits right at the $180 level, which is an area that has seen a lot of selling pressure previously, so it does look very likely that we will continue to see a lot of trouble.
On the downside, the $150 level looks likely to be supported. This is an area that has been important a couple of times in the past, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see the market try to target that yet again. If we can break down below there, then the market is likely to go much lower, perhaps reaching towards the $125 level, followed by the $100 level. We are more likely than not going to see a continuation of the selling pressure every time we rally.
Monero will struggle as long as the bigger coins will, such as Bitcoin. Bitcoin looks very fragile at this point, so every time we have seen buyers over there, it is only a matter of time before sellers get involved. The overall downtrend of crypto continues to be a major problem, as the risk appetite continues to dwindle in general. Ultimately, this is a market that is going to also face problems due to the fact that adoption is relatively limited, so whether or not it survives would be a completely different question.
If we are in fact going into a “crypto winter”, Monero wont fair very well. In fact, we could see a massive meltdown. On the other hand, if we were to turn around and break above the $180 level and go looking towards the $200 level. After that, we have the 200-day EMA which sits at the $2.12 level, which also offers a bit of resistance. Regardless, this is a market that continues to see plenty of sellers in not only Monero but also other crypto markets as well. If you have the opportunity to short this market, it might be the way to go.
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