Fundamentals:
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits in the week to April 30 exceeded expectations and recorded 200,000, the highest since the week of February 12, 2022. The U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter, while labor costs soared, signaling an extremely tight job market. There is a 75% chance that the Fed will raise rates by 75 points in June, and the CME Fed Watch sees an 83% chance. Swaps tied to the Fed's rate meeting date show a 100% chance the Fed will raise rates by at least 50 points in June and a 19% chance of a 75 point hike.
At 20:30 on Friday, the US will release the April non-farm payrolls report. The U.S. unemployment rate may slip to 3.5% in April, the lowest level since the 1960s. Continued strong demand for workers, combined with labor shortages, could keep unemployment at unusually low levels. Previously, Powell revealed the data benchmark job vacancy rate and unemployment rate to observe the Fed's policy trend in the future, so this non-agricultural news is of great significance and will likely affect the Fed's next interest rate decision.
Technical:
Dow: The Dow and NASDAQ posted their biggest one-day losses since 2020 in the previous session, with only 19 S&P 500 stocks not closing down. As of the close, the S&P 500 fell 3.56% to 4,146.87 points; the NASDAQ fell 4.99% to 12,317.69 points; the Dow Jones fell 3.12% to 32,997.97 points. The Dow pressure level is effective, pay attention to the continuation of the short, and continue to pay attention to the position near the bottom target of 32222 in the lower range.
USD: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit its highest level since November 2018 and ended at 3.04%. The dollar index rebounded strongly and finally closed up 1.044% at 103.59. The US dollar adjusted to the head shape and the short-term upper pressure level near 103.5, chasing more cautiously, and paying attention to the adjustment position near 102 below.
Gold: On Thursday, spot gold rose to a daily high of 1909.68 and then dived, falling more than $30 within the day, and finally closed down 0.23% at $1876.89 per ounce; gold fell after the data was released and ran to the pressure level near 1900 above, and the later concern range below the 1850 target.
Crude oil: The European Union announced that it intends to completely stop the import of Russian oil by the end of the year, as well as to prohibit the provision of transportation, insurance and other services for Russian oil. Crude oil prices hit a two-week high, and crude oil retreated sharply after hitting the $110 mark, and finally closed up 0.94% at $108.53 per barrel; crude oil prices reached the target pressure level of 108, and the bottom line focused on the 103 callback target.
(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the forex market is risky, and investors should be cautious)
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