DXY saw the fall following the rise, but gold prices witnessed the rebound in the wake of the meeting convened by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The reason for the situation is that Powell, the chair of the Fed, didnt specify the time of delisting after the meeting, which has plunged traders into worries that the delisting may be delayed again. Therefore, they decided to sell part of their positions in USD. My opinion remains unchanged that Powell can be insistent on dovish monetary policies before knowing the final decision on his reappointment to maintain the strong U.S. stocks and exaggerate his performance. However, it is undeniable that the Fed will announce its delisting at the end anyway, according to the current situation.
Despite no specific delisting time provided after the meeting, Powell has unveiled in terms of bond purchases that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will continue to evaluate the related progress in future conferences, indicative of a slightly hawkish signal sent to the market. Some market participants also predict that Powell will send more delisting-related signals in the Jackson Hole on August 26th and announce in the meeting scheduled for September 22nd that the delisting will commence early next year. If this view is widely shared by the financial market, the aftermarket of USD wont be gray.
There is still almost a month to go before the Jackson Hole on August 26th. USD would reverse the uptrend and return to a weak place during this period of time only under the following circumstances: The U.S. stocks saw a steep slump; The economic statistics witnessed the reversal and slowdown; FOMC members constantly sent out dovish signals in the future. However, according to the current situation, the U.S. stocks are unlikely to suffer a crash, and the possibility of the sluggish American economy is lower. Hence, I agree with the analysis aforementioned that the Fed will declare the decrease in bond purchases in August or September and the inception of interest-rate hikes earliest at the end of next year. As such, I am optimistic and confident about the aftermarket of USD.
In addition, the trend of selling in the stock market has swept Mainland China, Hong Kong, and other regions in Asia. There is a chance that the capital of emerging markets and even their developed counterparts will regard the U.S. bonds and USD as safe heaven because traders and fund managers are afraid of a potential financial crisis in Asia. As a result, USD will become a preferred safe heaven currency if stocks are sold continuously in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and other regions in Asia.
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