☆ At 18:00, the initial value of the annual CPI rate in February, the monthly CPI rate in February and the unemployment rate in January of the euro area will be announced.
☆ At 20:30, the European Central Bank released the minutes of the February monetary policy meeting, or provided more clues about the rate increase and the tightening cycle.
☆ The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week from February 24 will be announced at 21:00, with the previous value of 192000 and the expected value of 195000.
Market Overview
Review of Global Market Trend
On Wednesday, the spot gold continued to rise, breaking the 1840 mark in the middle of the day, and then narrowed, and finally closed up 0.61% to$1836.72 per ounce; Spot silver fluctuated sideways and ended up 0.51% at $20.99per ounce.
The dollar index weakened as a whole, once approaching the 104 level, and finally ended down 0.571% at 104.4 points. The yield of US 10-year treasury bond bonds rose to 4% after the release of US PMI data, the highest since November 10 last year, and finally rose 2.05% to 3.994%.
In terms of crude oil, the two oil ranges fluctuated, the European market fell sharply and hit the intra-day low before rebounding, and the positive EIA data at the end of the day pushed the oil price further higher. WTI crude oil ended up 1.37% at $77.58 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed 1.48% higher at $84.61per barrel.
The three major indexes of the US stock market rose in a mixed way, with the Dow Index up 0.02%, the Nasdaq Index down 0.66%, the S&P 500 Index down 0.47%, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up 3%, NetEase up 5%, Baidu up 4%, and Ideal Auto up 3%.
Most major indexes of European stocks ended lower. Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.39% to 15305.02; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.49% to 7914.93; The European Stoxx 50 Index closed 0.53% lower at 4215.75.
Market Focus
1. The US ISM price payment data was significantly better than expected. The swap market once priced the Federal Reserve at a peak of 5.5% in September, while the US 10Y yield rose to 4%. Traders who bet on raising interest rates to 6% began to take profits. (Dot chart of December Most Fed officials believe that the interest rate at the end of this year is 5.1%)
2. Bridgewater announced a major reform. It is reported that it will lay off about 100 people, limit the fund size and bet on AI during its period, and bid farewell to the era of founder Dalio.
3. The Fed official's speech – Bostic: still believes that the interest rate needs to rise to the range of 5% – 5.25% and maintain it until 2024; Kashkari: We are open to raising interest rates by 25 or 50 BP next time.
4. India's average maximum temperature in February broke the record, and wheat production may be affected.
5. Manufacturing PMI in Europe and the United States in February: 49.3 in the United Kingdom, with a new high since July last year. ISM and Markit in the United States recorded 47.7 and 47.3 respectively, both lower than expectations and 48.5 in the Eurozone, which met expectations.
6. Goldman Sachs: The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May, compared with 25 basis points previously expected, and the peak interest rate reached in June was 3.75%.
Geopolitical Situation
Conflict Situation：
1. The Ministry of Defense of Russia: Ukraine is trying to launch a large-scale drone attack on Crimea, but the Russian army repulsed the attack, and the attack of the Ukrainian army did not cause casualties.
2. Ukrainian armed forces: Russian troops continue to advance along the front line of Bahamut.
3. Zelensky: We are controlling all fronts.
4. The Ministry of Defense of Russia: The Russian army attacked the personnel and equipment of the Ukrainian army in Kupiansk, Bonus Man, Donetskand other directions.
5. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: the Ukrainian army repulsed the Russian attack in Kupyansk, Zinchman and Bachmut.
EnergySituation：
1. The Russian Ministry of Energy: Russia may make a decision this year to use the independent Russian oil price benchmark instead of the benchmark currently used.
2. Sources said that Russia's Ural crude oil supply to Turkey reached a four month high in February.
3. American officials: The United States will continue to increase India's Russian oil purchases.
FoodSituation：
1. When meeting with the Foreign Minister of Turkey, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrovsaid that it is possible to extend the food agreement only taking into account the interests of Russian producers.
2. According to Interfax, Russia's goal for this quarter is to export 60 million tons of grain.
3. The Ministry of Agriculture of Ukraine: Ukraine's grain exports reached 5.2 million tons in February 2023, exceeding the level of the same period last year.
4. The US Department of State: The G20 must speak out for maintaining and expanding the Black Sea Food Initiative.
5. Interfax: Russia will not amend the grain export quota of this quarter, but may redistribute the grain export quota of exporters. The goal of this quarter is to export 60 million tons of grain.
Institutional Perspective
01
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs: Oil prices will rise sharply again in the next 12-18 months.
According to foreign media reports, Jeff Currie, head of Goldman Sachs Commodity Research Department, said in an interview with the media on Wednesday that the bank was “very confident” that oil prices would rise again in the next 12-18 months. With the decline of oil inventories and the stabilization of money supply, the price of crude oil is expected to reach $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
02
SOCIETE GENERALE
【Societe Generale: The European Central Bank may raise interest rates further to boost the euro】
Societe Generale said that the European Central Bank may further raise interest rates significantly to curb inflation, thus boosting the euro. Olivier Korber, foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in a report that the risk of recession in Europe and the tight labor market should maintain the upward risk of core inflation. Economists at the bank still expect the European Central Bank to further tighten its policy significantly. The European Central Bank will suspend interest rate increases only when the economy is on a more sustainable path of inflation. Korber said that due to the cautious attitude of the market, the peak interest rate expectation may be repriced higher.
03
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ said that the US dollar would rise further in the next week. We still believe that there is room for further increase in the recent rebound of the US dollar. After breaking the 105.00 mark, the US dollar index DXY will retest the intra-year high of 105.63, and then the 200-day moving average, which was slightly lower than 106.50.
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