① To be determined Domestic oil products open a new round of price adjustment window
② 09:45 China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December
③ 16:55 German seasonally adjusted unemployment for December
④ 16:55 German seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for December
⑤ 17:30 UK Manufacturing PMI for December
⑥ 21:00 Germany preliminary monthly rate of CPI for December
⑦ 22:45 U.S. final Markit Manufacturing PMI for December
⑧ 23:00 U.S. monthly rate of Construction Spending for November
Market Overview
Review of Global Market Trend
On Friday, December 30, investors weighed the prospect of continued Fed tightening and the impact on the economy, the dollar index continued to fall, hitting a new six-month low, closing down 0.47% at 103.49. The dollar index narrowed its annual gain to 8.1%.
The euro broke below parity against the dollar in 2022, reaching a low of 0.95, which was a cumulative decline of 5.8% for the year. The British pound hit a new record low against the U.S. dollar amid expectations of fiscal policy chaos in the U.K., bottoming out at near parity at 1.03, which was a cumulative decline of 10.5%. The yen recovered sharply from losses in December amid sudden tightening signals from the Bank of Japan, but still depreciated nearly 14% for the year. The dollar closed from as high as 166 against the Russian ruble at 70 for the year, making it one of the strongest currencies in 2022, amid demands for Russia to settle its gas in rubles. The onshore yuan fell 8.32% cumulatively against the dollar in 2022.
U.S. bond yields rose for two weeks in a row, and in 2022, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note increased by 370 basis points cumulatively, which was the largest annual increase since regular issuance began in 1972; the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note increased by 238 basis points cumulatively, which was the largest annual increase since 1953.
Spot gold regained the 1820 mark on Friday, closing up 0.49% at $1823.79 per ounce; spot silver closed up 0.26% at $23.97 per ounce. Spot gold in 2022 closed slightly down about 0.3% to $ 1825 per ounce a line, the annual line showed no merit cross, gold hold regret in March to challenge the historical price of $ 2074 in vain, its annual amplitude of about $ 450 or 24.8%. Spot silver closed up 2.6% for the year to $24 per ounce, with an annual amplitude of about $9.4 or 40.3%. Gold underperformed silver overall, with the gold-silver ratio falling 3.1% for the year.
The last trading day of 2022 saw a strong rebound in crude oil, with Brent crude closing up $2.27, increase of 2.72%, at $85.96 per barrel. WTI crude closed up 2.22%, regaining the $80 mark at $80.42 per barrel. From the performance of the year, affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, oil prices in the first two quarters were on an upward trend, up to $138.02 per barrel; the last two quarters gradually fell, once erasing the year's gains, after bottoming out, Brent crude oil rose 0.10% for the year.
U.S. stocks closed slightly lower on the final trading day of 2022, with the Dow Jones closing down 0.22%, the S&P 500 closing down 0.28% and the Nasdaq Composite closing down 0.11%. The performance of the three major stock indexes in 2022 was divided into three echelons, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 8.78% for the year, the S&P 500 in the middle of the pack, down 19.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite the third worst annual performance in history, closing down 33.1%. All three major stock indexes saw their annual trifecta of gains come to an end. The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index, reflecting the performance of Chinese stocks, closed down 24.6%. The Fed's continued tightening impact on growth stocks, represented by technology stocks, continued to weaken this year, several once trillion-dollar market capitalization of technology giants have folded, traditional blue-chip stocks under this performance is more solid.
European stocks closed down collectively on Friday, with Germany's DAX30 closing down 1.56%, France's CAC40 closing down 1.52%, the Euro Stoxx 50 closing down 1.41%, Spain's IBEX 35 closing down 1.06% and Italy's FTSE MIB closing down 1.42%.
Hot spots in the market
1. The new term of office of the United States Congress will begin today. There is doubt about the choice of the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
2. Minister of Mines and Energy of Brazil: The supervision and implementation of the mining industry in Brazil will be tightened.
3. Tesla's annual report card: 1.31 million cars were delivered throughout the year, a year-on-year increase of 40%, lower than its long-term goal of 50%. Q4 delivered a record 405000 cars, but still less than the market expectation of 420000, while the output was 439000. Tesla explained that: on the road.
4. Tesla will release its 2022 annual financial report at 6:30 on January 26, Beijing time.
5. Yonhap News Agency: Since now, Chinese personnel entering the ROK must undergo landing nucleic acid testing.
6. National Weather Service: The United States is facing a new round of winter storms, freezing rain and tornadoes.
7. The avian influenza epidemic in Japan continues to expand: the total number of birds culled due to the avian influenza epidemic in this quarter has reached about 7.74 million.
Geopolitical Situation
Conflict situation:
1. Mayor of Kiev: At present, the targets of night UAV attacks in Russia are mainly key infrastructure and air defense systems in operation. The nighttime attacks damaged the city's energy infrastructure, causing the interruption of electricity and heating.
2. The governor of Bryansk state of Russia said that Ukrainian drones attacked the Bryansk region of Russia, causing damage to power supply facilities; No casualties.
3. The State Electricity Company of Ukraine said that in the early morning of January 2 local time, Russians attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure again with drones, causing continuous damage. As of 11:00 on the same day, the situation of the power system had been completely controlled.
4. According to the Russian satellite news agency, the 152mm 2A36 “Hyacinth B” artillery company in the southern military region of Russia destroyed the assembly of Ukrainian armored equipment in the direction of Zaporoge.
5. Russian Ministry of Defense: Ukraine attacked the temporary deployment facilities of Russian troops in Makjevka, killing at least 63 Russian soldiers; The Russian army wiped out nearly 70 Ukrainian troops in the Donetsk offensive.
6. The “Donetsk People's Republic” said that the shelling of the area by the Ukrainian army had caused at least 15000 users to lose power and Petrovsk's water supply network to lose power.
Agency News
1. Goldman Sachs：It is estimated that the natural gas price will drop to 4.00-4.20 USD/million Btu from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2023, while the current expectation is 4.20-4.40 USD/million Btu. For us, the short-term outlook for the oil market is still not optimistic, given the concerns about oversupply.It is estimated that the price of Brent crude oil will be $90/barrel in 2023, compared with $110/barrel previously, which is consistent with the expectation that Brent's long-term and medium-term price will be $90/barrel. Maintain a constructive view on recent oil prices.The best price point of oil stock is when the price of oil distribution is 90 dollars/barrel. It is estimated that the oil price will average 80-100 dollars/barrel from 2023 to 2026, and will continue to fluctuate.
2. SOCIETE GENERALE：Investors should be cautious about selling US dollars.
Kit Juckes, strategist of Societe Generale Bank, said that the easing of economic optimism and geopolitical tensions is encouraging the selling of the US dollar, but investors should remain cautious because risks still exist.He said in a report that the decline of the safe haven US dollar reflects people's optimistic view that the world is recovering, the COVID-19 has ended, the Russian Ukrainian conflict will not become more terrible, may be resolved, geopolitical tensions will not hinder the soft landing of the US economy, and inflation can be controlled without a serious economic recession.However, he said that the market may be too complacent, and investors should “be alert to the sluggish reaction of the market and the weakness of the euro in January”. At present, the euro is at 1.0683 against the US dollar EUR/USD, which remains near the high of 1.0732 in recent six months.
3. MUFG：The 10-year fixed mortgage interest rate will be raised from 3.52% to 3.7%.
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