☆ Reminder of market closing: The Tokyo Stock Exchange is closed for one day today due to holiday.
Market Overview
Review of Global Market Trend
On Friday, boosted by the slowly cooling non-agricultural employment data and the US ISM non manufacturing PMI in December, which was much less than expected, spot gold rose more than $30 in the US session, and finally ended up 1.77% at $1865.71 per ounce; Spot silver rose along with gold, and finally ended up 2.57% at $23.81/oz.
The dollar index plunged sharply and fell below the 104 mark, and finally closed down 1.16% to 103.93. The yield of the 10-year US bond fell from a high of 3.755% to 3.562%. The yield of three-month and 10-year US government bonds was once 100 basis points upside down, and a reliable signal of US recession was added.
In terms of crude oil, WTI crude oil had a “bad start”, falling by more than 8% last week, and this was the first weekly decline of US oil in four weeks. WTI crude oil showed a narrow fluctuation trend last Friday, and finally closed down 0.35% at 73.64 dollars/barrel; Brent crude oil closed 0.42% lower at US $78.47/barrel.
In terms of natural gas, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the US natural gas price fell to an 18 month low.
US equities (DJIA) closed 2.13% higher, the S&P 500 closed 2.28% higher and the Nasdaq closed 2.56% higher. Chip stocks, consumer electronics and oil stocks mostly strengthened. Influenced by the sharp price reduction of Tesla's domestic models, “Weixiaoli” fell, and Tesla's price fell by more than 7% for the first time, and finally ended up 2.47%. It is worth noting that the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 index recorded their first weekly gains since December 2 last year.
European stocks closed higher, while Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.20% to 14610.02; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.87% to 7699.49; The European Stoxx 50 index closed 1.47% higher at 4017.83.
Hot spots in the market
1. U.S. media said Biden is preparing for his re-election campaign and may announce his plan to run in February.
2. 7.2 magnitude earthquake hit Vanuatu.
3. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops launched a “retaliatory action” for the New Year's Eve attack on Ukrainian troops, resulting in the death of more than 600 Ukrainian soldiers.
4. Citigroup CEO: The Fed will raise interest rates to about 5.5% by May. Overall, U.S. inflation has peaked.
5. “U.S. Congress riots” Brazil version: supporters of the former president stormed the presidential palace, Congress and the Supreme Court. Brazil's President Lula ordered increased security in the capital.
Geopolitical Situation
1. Russian Defense Ministry: Russian troops launched a “retaliatory operation” for the New Year's Eve attack by Ukrainian troops, killing more than 600 Ukrainian soldiers.
2. Senior Russian officials: After the ceasefire ends, the tasks set by the Russian special military operation will still be completed.
3. Russia says two thermal power plants in the Russian-controlled Donetsk region have been damaged by Ukrainian shelling.
4. The Russian Defense Ministry said 50 Russian servicemen captured in Ukraine who faced death returned after negotiations ended Sunday.
5. Two thermal power plants in the Russian-controlled Donetsk region were damaged by Ukrainian shelling, the Russian side said.
6. The President of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Sergei Katrin said that Western sanctions have affected the operations of most Russian companies, but about 25% of companies that lost foreign partners have found new ones.
7. Belarusian Defense Ministry: a joint air exercise with Russia will be held from January 16 to February 1.
8. German energy regulator does not expect gas shortages until the end of winter.
Institutional Perspective
1. Goldman Sachs：Value stocks are likely to shine again this year as central banks maintain their hawkish stance and keep interest rates high while investors flee overpriced tech stocks.
2. SOCIETE GENERALE：The euro could rise in early 2023 as ECB policy tightening comes into focus.
Societe Generale said the euro could rise in early 2023; as positive risk appetite, falling energy prices and a possible de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will put more focus on the ECB's policy tightening. Olivier Korber, foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said the Fed's forecast shows that U.S. inflation is falling much faster than the ECB's forecast for euro zone inflation. As a result, the ECB is expected to raise rates sharply and its rate hike cycle is likely to last longer than the Fed's. Korber said, “Even though seasonality in January suggests a slow start for EURUSD, the move is expected to accelerate as we move towards spring.”
3. MUFG：The 10-year fixed mortgage rate will increase to 3.7% from 3.52%.
Leave a Reply