March 1, 2023 -Fundamental Reminder
☆ The official manufacturing PMI of China in February was announced at 9:30, and the Caixin manufacturing PMI of China in February was announced at 9:45.
☆ At 18:00, Governor Bailey of the Bank of England delivered a speech on the cost of living crisis.
☆ At 22:45, the final PMI value of Markit manufacturing industry in the United States in February was announced; At 23:00, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in February and the US monthly rate of construction expenditure in January were announced; At 23:30, the EIA crude oil inventory of the United States for the week to February 24 was announced.
☆ The Korea – Seoul Stock Exchange is closed for one day for the Independence Day.
☆ Tesla Investor Day will be broadcast live on the Internet at 3:00 p.m. (5:00 a.m. Beijing time) on March 1.
Market Overview
Review of Global Market Trend
On Tuesday, spot gold fell first and then rose. A series of unexpected economic data on the US market once pushed the gold price to expand to 1830 US dollars/ounce, the highest since February 23, but it fell slightly in the end of the day, and ended up 0.54% higher at 1827.03 US dollars/ounce. In February, it fell more than 5%, setting the worst performance month since the middle of 2021; The trend of spot silver was similar, and it was only one step away from the 21 level in the intraday, and finally closed up 1.31% at 20.9 US dollars/ounce.
The US dollar index went out of the V-shaped reversal and fell to the intraday low at the beginning of the US market, then rebounded strongly and finally closed up 0.325% at 105 points. The yield of US Treasuries also closed higher, ending 0.15% higher at 3.928%.
In terms of crude oil, the two oil companies resumed their rise, but fell for the fourth consecutive month. WTI crude oil hit a maximum of 77.8 in the day and ended up 1.43% at 76.68 USD/barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 1.17% at US $83.31/barrel.
In terms of natural gas, the price of US natural gas futures fell sharply during the whole trading session on Tuesday, but there was a sudden frenzy of buying before the closing, and finally closed up 0.6% slightly, with the closing price of 2.747 US dollars/million British thermal units, which was the fifth consecutive trading day, and the cumulative increase of 33% in the five trading days. This is mainly affected by winter storm weather.
US stocks closed lower, with the Dow down 0.71%, the Nasdaq down 0.1% and the S&P 500 index down 0.32%. The shares of the popular Zhonggai were up and down, with Minisoup 5% and Xiaopeng Motorup 4%; Bilibili closed down 3%, while Netease and Alibaba closed down 1%. Novavax, a US biotech company and vaccine manufacturer, said that there was great doubt about its continued operation, and its share price plunged after the market, with a decline of more than 30%.
Most major indexes of European stocks fell. Germany's DAX30 index fell 0.11% to 15365.14; The FTSE 100 index of the UK closed 0.74% lower at 7876.28; The European Stoxx 50 Index closed 0.23% lower at 4238.38.
Market Focus
1. Minutes of the Fed's January discount rate meeting: 3 hawkish supervisors of the local Fed supported a 50BP increase in the discount rate in January, 2 sought no adjustment, and 7 supported +25BP.
2. FOMC voting commission Goolsby: over-reliance on market reaction to guide monetary policy is “wrong”, and use actual economic data to assess.
3. The number of newborns in Japan fell below 800,000 for the first time last year, which was the lowest record, and the seventh consecutive year of decline.
4. Brazil will impose a tax on crude oil exports for four months to cover fiscal revenue expectations.
5. India: Higher-than-normal temperatures and heat waves are expected in March-May.
6. British media: UK Treasury considers reversing plans to cut energy subsidies.
7. Money markets fully priced in the ECB's 4% interest rate peak for the first time.
8. Russia closed 200 km of airspace around St. Petersburg airport Tuesday morning allegedly due to the discovery of an unidentified object, which was lifted hours later.
9. The LME decided to suspend the registration of new warehouse orders for Russian primary aluminum, copper, lead, nickel or aluminum alloys at its U.S. warehouses. However, the U.S. warehouse currently has no registered warehouse receipts for the above metals and the impact is minor for the time being.
Geopolitical Situation
Conflict Situation：
1. Ukrainian ground forces commander Syrskyi said the situation around Bakhmut is “extremely tense” as Russian Wagner forces try to surround the town. Syrskyi said the intensity of the conflict around Bakhmut continues to increase.
2. According to TASS: The Russian Defense Ministry said that the U.S. plans to use toxic chemicals in Ukraine to provoke.
3. Russian Defense Ministry: About 350 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed in the Donetsk direction in the past 24 hours.
4. Russian Defense Ministry: Ukraine tried to attack two Russian regions with drones at night.
5. Putin: The Russian Federal Security Service has been asked to strengthen the security situation in the four Ukrainian regions currently occupied.
EnergySituation：
1. Gazprom Neft: oil prices may be in the range of $80-110 per barrel in 2023.
2. Polish Prime Minister: Poland will not buy Russian oil in February and March.
3. CEO of Polish state oil company: Russia has stopped oil supply to Poland after US President Joe Biden's visit to Poland.
4. IEA: Russia's oil and gas revenues fell by nearly 40% in January.
5. Russia and Belarus agreed to keep Russian gas prices at 2022 levels in 2023-2025.
Institutional Perspective
01
Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sachs CEO Solomon said Tuesday that the bank is “considering strategic options” for its retail platform business, which includes specialty lender GreenSky and credit card partnerships with Apple Inc. and General Motors Co. GreenSky or its bankcard partnership program. That could mean some sort of tweak to the bankcard agreement to make it more profitable for Goldman Sachs or allow another bank to join Goldman as a card issuer.
02
SOCIETE GENERALE
【Societe Generale: ECB may raise interest rates further to boost the euro】
Societe Generale said that the European Central Bank may raise interest rates further sharply to curb inflation, thus boosting the euro. Societe Generale foreign exchange strategist Olivier Korber said in a report that the reduced risk of recession in Europe and tight labor markets should maintain the upside risk of core inflation. The bank's economists still expect the ECB to tighten policy further sharply and only suspend rate hikes when the economy is on a more sustainable path of falling inflation. Korber said peak interest rate expectations could be repriced higher as markets take a cautious approach.
03
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ analysis says the dollar will move further to the upside in the coming week. We continue to believe that the recent rally in the dollar has room for further gains. After breaking above the 105.00 mark, the dollar index DXY will retest the yearly high of 105.63, followed by the 200-day moving average, just below 106.50.
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