Fundamentals：
The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week to July 9, announced last night, exceeded expectations and recorded 244,000, the highest since the week of November 20, 2021. The agency believes that more and more companies are announcing layoffs due to growing fears of a U.S. recession. While the job market has remained strong so far in the face of rising interest rates, the Federal Reserve is likely to further rein in decades-high inflation by raising rates more aggressively, which could dampen demand for labor.
The 2024 FOMC vote committee, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that a 100 basis point rate hike is one of the possibilities, and his most likely position is to support a 75 basis point rate hike. Federal Reserve Governor Waller also believes that the basic expectation in July is to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and the market's expectations for a 100 basis point rate hike may be a bit ahead, depending on the retail sales (released tonight) and housing data. Even the Fed's “Eagle King” Bullard believes that 100 basis points of interest rate hikes are not currently supported, and a 75 basis point interest rate hike at the next meeting can raise interest rates to a neutral level.
Technical：
Dow: In terms of U.S. stocks, U.S. stocks regained lost ground for two consecutive days as several officials including Bullard, the Fed's most hawkish coupon committee member this year, cooled the market's expectations for a 100BP rate hike. The Dow closed down 0.46%, the Nasdaq closed close to flat, the S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, and the three major stock indexes all fell more than 2% during the session. The Dow finished higher and fell back to 30700 consolidation, pay attention to the position near 29700 below.
U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar index continued to maintain its upward trend. It climbed to a high of 109.31 during the session, and then gave up some of the gains, and finally closed up 0.565% at 108.66; the 10-year U.S. bond yield repeatedly challenged 3% and failed, and finally closed at 2.958%. The US dollar is cautious in chasing more at historical highs, and in the short term, it is concerned about the top position near 110.
Gold: On Thursday, spot gold fell sharply, falling below the $1,700 mark during the session, and fell nearly $40 from the daily high, and finally closed down 1.49% at $1,709.64 per ounce; spot silver accelerated in the U.S. session, falling It broke below $19 and finally closed down 4.1% at $18.42 an ounce. Gold fluctuated at a low level, focusing on the short-term target of gold at 1680.
Crude oil: In terms of crude oil, the two crude oils showed a V-shaped trend. WTI crude oil once fell to a low of 90.54 US dollars, and then recovered all lost ground and turned higher, and finally closed up 0.09% at 96.46 US dollars / barrel; Brent crude oil closed flat , at $99.67 per barrel. Pay attention to the 86 position of crude oil below.
(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the foreign exchange market is risky, and investment should be cautious)
Leave a Reply