Gold technical analysis
Bulls take on critical resistances of $1,950 and $1,970 at the start of the week.
Support is located in and above the $1,930s with 'blue skies' in the $2,000s eyed.
Will XAU/USD continue to ignore rising US yields？
Stocks on Wall Street started the shortened trading week on the back foot as investors were in high anticipation of the closely watched inflation report. The Core Consumer Price Index will likely increase by 0.47% in March, Goldman Sachs said in a research note, taking the year-on-year inflation rate higher by 20 basis points to 6.6%. The data is due Tuesday. The US 10-year yield jumped 5.4 basis points on the day to almost 2.77%.
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At $1,947, the gold price is underwater in mid-New York Trade. The price hs range traded between a high of $1,970.02 and a low of $1,940.03 on the day so far. The week is young but we have already seen good volatility in financial and commodity markets owing to the French elections, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and central bank jitters. Meanwhile, it is going to be a busy week ahead and gold could be on the verge of a breakout.
The gold price has been range-trading since mid-March, potentially accumulating the 2022 rally and ripening for a bullish continuation. This is despite the hawkish narrative surrounding the Federal Reserve. ''All the shorts have been wiped out and ETF inflows have slowed as the fear trade subsides,'' analysts at TD Securities said.
''In turn, either gold bugs are sleepwalking towards a significant drawdown as inflows could subside alongside an increase to short positioning, or the resilience in prices is reflecting a different set of information. In this context, the gold market could be incorporating some scepticism that the neutral rate required to tame inflation is significantly higher given the inflationary shock is driven by the supply-side, while increasing recession fears offer further support to the gold bulls.''
With this in mind, economic events will be critical this week, and there is an array of the goings-on in this regard that could turn out to be catalysts for the gold price. UK Employment, US Consumer Price Index on Tuesday will be the first major economic data to help unveil the health of the global economy.
The US inflation data will likely supersede on the day, with strong prices for March reinforcing the hawkish outlook at the Fed, potentially supportive of the US dollar and weight for the price of gold. On the other hand, analysts at Rabobank have warned that the Fed could be hiking into recession.
''The Feds main policy error was to ignore the rise in inflation last year and get blindsided. This has set in motion a wage-price spiral that will be very difficult to reverse without hiking the economy into recession.''
Other key events for the week that could move the needle of the gold price include the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision, UK inflation and the Bank of Canada's rate decision on Wednesday. Then, the Australia jobs report, European Central Bank rate decision, and US Retail Sales will all fall on Thursday.
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