☆ At 22:00, the United States announced the monthly rate of the FHFA house price index in December and the annual rate of the S&P/CS20 major cities' house price index in December.
☆ At 3:30 the next day, the FOMC Voting Committee and the Chairman of the Chicago Federal Reserve, Goolsby, delivered a speech in 2023. Earlier, sources said that the White House was considering making Goolsby the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, so that the hawkish Cleveland Fed Chairman Maester might get a temporary vote.
☆ At 5:30 the next day, API crude oil inventory in the United States increased by 9.895 million barrels from the previous value to the week of February 24. Investors need to be alert that the inventory data again exceeded the expected growth, which may strengthen the market's concern about oversupply and put pressure on oil prices.
Market Overview
Review of Global Market Trend
On Monday, the spot gold rose, and the US market was boosted by the unexpected sharp drop in the monthly rate of US durable goods orders. It once hit the 1820 level, then fell back, and finally closed up 0.3% at 1817.28 US dollars/ounce; Spot silver fluctuated at a low level and ended down 0.69% at$20.64/ounce.
The US dollar index ended its four consecutive gains on the day line, and the US market dived, missed the 105 mark, and finally closed down 0.579% at 104.66. The yield of US Treasuries also fell, ending down 0.69% at 3.922%.
In terms of crude oil, the two oil markets fell in shock. WTI crude oil insurance fell below the 75 mark, then rebounded slightly, and finally closed down 1.19% at US $75.59/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 1.14% at US $82.39/barrel. In terms of natural gas, European natural gas futures closed down 7.4% to below 520 US dollars per cubic kilometer, the lowest level since August 2021.
US stockrebounded across the board, with the Dow up 0.22%, the Nasdaq up 0.63% and the S&P 500 up 0.31%. Popular Chinese stocks rose generally, Baidu closed up 5%, iQIYI closed up 4%, and Pinduoduo closed up nearly 3%; Tesla closed up more than 5%.
The main indexes of European stocks closed higher collectively. Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.13% to 15381.43; The FTSE 100 index rose 0.72% to 7935.11; The European Stoxx 50 Index closed 1.66% lower at 4248.01.
Market Focus
1. Musk regain the of the richest man in the world with a value of more than 180 billion dollars.
2. Britain and Europe announce an agreement on the settlement of the trade dispute in Northern Ireland after the “Brexit”.
3. The EU said that Serbia and Kosovo have agreed to the text of the agreement on normalization of relations.
4. Coinbase will suspend the transaction of fixed currency and fixed currency BUSD on March 13.
5. Traders push back ECB rate peak bets until 2024 for the first time.
6. Goldman Sachs expects that the oil market will fall into shortage in the second half of the year or push OPEC to reverse its production reduction policy in June.
7. Japan: From March 1, the COVID-19 epidemic prevention inspection measures for people entering China will be relaxed, and the whole inspection will be changed to random inspection.
8. The nominee of the governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Noda, does not believe that continuing the YCC will lead to hyperinflation. Once the inflation target of 2% is achieved, the exit strategy will be launched.
Geopolitical Situation
Conflict Situation：
1. The Russian Ministry of Defense: more than 520 Ukrainian armed personnel were eliminated within 24 hours, and an ammunition depot near the Bakmut region was destroyed.
2. The Kremlin: At present, there is no premise for negotiations on the Ukrainian issue, and Russia's special military action against Ukraine is moving towards the established goal.
3. The head of the Joint Coordination Information Center of the Southern Ukrainian Defense Force said that the Ukrainian army had assembled troops at the border near the Dniester River.
4. Pushilin, the acting leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, said that almost all the roads to Bakmut were under the control of Russian fire.
AssistanceSituation:
1. Iran's foreign minister said during a meeting with his Finnish counterpart that his country is ready to hold a new round of talks with Ukraine on the supply of weapons to Russia, including drones.
2. A week after Biden's surprise visit to Ukraine, US Treasury Secretary Yellen appeared in Kiev on Monday. Yellen announced that from the latest $9.9 billion economic assistance plan, $1.25 billion was allocated to Ukraine.
3. Kirby, spokesman of the National Security Council of the United States: Ukraine will receive more assistance in air defense capabilities.
Food Situation:
1. Source: The specific date for extending the food agreement has not been discussed.
2. As of February 27, Ukraine's grain exports fell by 27%.
Institutional Perspective
01
Goldman Sachs
【Goldman Sachs raised its US core PCE expectations.】
Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a report that despite the strong inflation data in January, they predicted that core PCE inflation “will still fall sharply this year, from the current 4.7% to 3.3% in December”. By comparison, their previous forecast was 2.9%. They expected that the inflation increase would be concentrated in the first half of the year, “mainly reflecting the rising path of second-hand car inflation in the next few months, as well as a small increase in housing inflation.”
02
SOCIETE GENERALE
【Societe Generale: The European Central Bank may raise interest rates further to boost the euro】
Societe Generale said that the European Central Bank may further raise interest rates significantly to curb inflation, thus boosting the euro. Olivier Korber, foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in a report that the risk of recession in Europe and the tight labor market should maintain the upward risk of core inflation. Economists at the bank still expect the European Central Bank to further tighten its policy significantly. The European Central Bank will suspend interest rate increases only when the economy is on a more sustainable path of inflation. Korber said that due to the cautious attitude of the market, the peak interest rate expectation may be repriced higher.
03
MUFG
Mitsubishi UFJ said that the US dollar would rise further in the next week. We still believe that there is room for further increase in the recent rebound of the US dollar. After breaking the 105.00 mark, the US dollar index DXY will retest the intra-year high of 105.63, and then the 200-day moving average, which was slightly lower than 106.50.
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