Fundamentals:
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits in the week to May 14 exceeded expectations by 218,000, the highest since the week of January 22, 2022. The U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index recorded 2.6 in May, the lowest level since December 2020. The data fell well short of market expectations, adding to recession fears sparked by yesterday's weak housing data and this week's dismal retail earnings report.
The minutes of the European Central Bank's April monetary policy meeting showed that despite the further rise in the risk of a wage price spiral in the euro zone, the path of gradual monetary normalization will remain. The minutes of the meeting released on the 19th showed that policymakers at the European Central Bank generally believed that inflation was high and higher than expected, increasing the risk of wages triggering a second round of price increases. High energy prices are spreading across all sectors of the economy and making inflation increasingly common and persistent. The euro zone's core inflation measure is already well above 2 percent and is unlikely to return to the ECB's target anytime soon.
Technical:
Dow: On Thursday, U.S. stock index futures continued to fall. The number of initial jobless claims announced before the market was higher than market expectations. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell sharply, far below market expectations, exacerbating yesterday's weak housing market data and this week's retail companies. Recession fears sparked by dismal earnings. The Dow closed 0.75% at 31,253.13 points, continuing to hit a new closing low since March last year; the S&P 500 closed 0.58% at 3,900.79 points; the Nasdaq closed slightly down 0.26%, with an intraday amplitude of 2.19%. The support level around 31200 fluctuated widely, focusing on the target position of 32700 above the range band.
USD: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond refreshed a three-week low and finally closed at 2.837%. The U.S. dollar index fell below 103 for the first time since May 5, and finally closed 0.991% at 102.89, the largest one-day drop since November 2020. At present, the US dollar is falling, and the bears continue to focus on the target position of the previous low of 102.3 below.
Gold: Spot gold rose sharply on Thursday to start a strong rally, hitting a high of $1,849.08 an ounce in the day, and finally closed 1.44% at $1,841.77 an ounce. The price of gold is expected to end the four-week losing streak and is currently trading around $1,848. Continue to pay attention to the bullish target of gold and focus on the target position of 1866 above the range.
Crude oil: WTI crude oil fell sharply in the short-term before the U.S. market, hitting a minimum of $105.09/barrel, then quickly rebounded, recovering all the losses in the day, and finally closed 2.32% at $111.63/barrel; Brent crude oil closed 1.93% at $111.33 USD/barrel. At present, chasing long is cautious, focusing on the pressure level near 118 above the bulls, and the bears focusing on the target position near 98 below.
(The above analysis only represents the analyst's point of view, the forex market is risky, and investors should be cautious)
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